Tag Archives: sports

2017 Predictions

It’s fun to have opinions, and it’s easy to craft a narrative to fit your beliefs. But it’s especially dangerous to look back at events and place them retroactively into your model of the world. You can’t learn anything if you’re only ever looking for evidence that supports you.  However, if you try to use your model of the world to create testable predictions, those predictions can be proven right or wrong, and you can actually learn something. Incorrect predictions can help update our models.

This is, of course, the basis for the scientific method, and generally increasing our understanding of the world. Making predictions is also important for making us more humble; we don’t know everything and so putting our beliefs to the test requires us to reduce our certainty until we’ve researched a subject before making baseless claims.  Confidence levels are an important part of predictions, as they force us to think in the context of value and betting: a 90% confidence level means I would take a $100 bet that required me to put up anything less that $90. Moreover, it’s not just a good idea to make predictions to help increase your knowledge; people who have opinions but refuse to predict things with accompanying confidence levels, and therefore refuse to subject their theories to scrutiny and testability, must be classified as more fraudulent and intellectually dishonest.

First let’s take a look at how I did this past year, and see if my calibration levels were correct. Incorrect predictions are crossed out.

World Events

  1. Liberland will be recognized by <5 UN members: 99% (recognized by 0)
  2. Free State Project to reach goal of 20,000 people in 2016: 50% (occurred February 3rd)
  3. ISIS to still exist: 80%
  4. ISIS to kill < 100 Americans 2016: 80% (I think <100 were killed by any terrorists, fewer in combat)
  5. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 80%
  6. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 80% (50 did die in the Orlando shooting unfortunately)
  7. Donald Trump will not be Republican Nominee: 80% (whoops)
  8. Hillary Clinton to be Democratic nominee: 90%
  9. Republicans to hold Senate: 60%
  10. Republicans to hold House: 80%
  11. Republicans to win Presidential Election: 50% (I predicted in December, Nate Silver had Trump at 35% the day of, who’s a genius now??)
  12. I will vote for the Libertarian Presidential Candidate: 70% *
  13. S&P 500 level end of year < 2500: 70%
  14. Unemployment rate December 2016 < 6% : 70%
  15. WTI Crude Oil price < $50 : 80%
  16. Price of Bitcoin > $500:  60%
  17. Price of Bitcoin < $1000: 80%
  18. Sentient General AI will not be created this year: 99%
  19. Self-driving cars will not be available this year to purchase / legally operate for < $100k: 99%
  20. I will not be able to rent trips on self-driving cars from Uber/ Lyft: 90% **
  21. Humans will not land on moon by end of 2016: 95%
  22. Edward Snowden will not be pardoned by end of Obama Administration: 80% *

Personal

  1. Employed in current job:  90%
  2. I will have less than 300 Twitter followers: 60%
  3. I will have authored > 12 more blog posts by June 30, 2016:  50% *
  4. michaelelgart.com to have >4,000 page loads 2016: 50%
  5. These predictions are underconfident: 70%

Sports

  1. Miami Heat make playoffs 2016:  80%
  2. Miami Heat will not make Eastern Conference Finals:  90%
  3. Duke basketball wins 1 game or more against UNC: 60%
  4. Duke basketball makes it to Round of 32 in NCAA Tournament: 70%
  5. Duke basketball does not make Final Four: 90%
  6. USA wins Olympic gold medal in basketball: 70%
  7. Kevin Durant will not be highest paid NBA player during 2016-17 season: 70%

*I didn’t personally vote for the libertarian candidate, but I did trade my vote, resulting in Gary Johnson getting two votes more than he would have had I not voted at all. I’m counting this as at least a vote for Johnson.

**Technically, I am not particularly able to get a ride on a self-driving Uber because I don’t live in Pittsburgh, but I don’t think that’s what I meant. I also didn’t expect any self-driving Uber rides to be available anywhere, so I’m counting it against me.

*Obama still has a few weeks to pardon Snowden, but it’s not looking good

**Most of the blog posts were not on this blog.

So let’s take a look at how I did by category:

  • Of items I marked as 50% confident, 2 were right and 1 was wrong.
  • Of items I marked as 60% confident, 4 were right and 0 were wrong.
  • Of items I marked as 70% confident, 7 were right and 0 were wrong.
  • Of items I marked as 80% confident, 8 were right and 2 were wrong.
  • Of items I marked as 90% confident, 4 were right and 1 was wrong.
  • Of items I marked as 95% confident, 1 was right and 0 were wrong.
  • Of items I marked as 99% confident, 3 were right and 0 were wrong.

 

2016-predictions-personal

You’re supposed to be as close to the perfect calibration line as possible. The big problems are the 60% and 70% predictions all coming true. The chance of all 60% predictions coming true assuming they actually had a 60% chance of happening is 13%. The chance of all 70% predictions coming true was 8%. These seem unlikely, so I need to work on finding more uncertain things to predict or upping my confidence in some of my predictions.

Predictions for 2017:

World Events

  1. Trump Approval Rating end of June <50% (Reuters or Gallup): 60%
  2. Trump Approval Rating end of year <50% (Reuters or Gallup): 80%
  3. Trump Approval Rating end of year <45% (Reuters or Gallup): 60%
  4. Trump 2017 Average Approval Rating (Gallup) <50%: 70%
  5. ISIS to still exist as a fighting force in Palmyra, Mosul, or Al-Raqqah: 60%
  6. ISIS to kill < 100 Americans: 80%
  7. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 60%
  8. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 90%
  9. France will not vote to leave to the EU: 80%
  10. The UK will trigger Article 50 this year: 70%
  11. The UK will not fully leave the EU this year: 99%
  12. No country will leave the Euro (adopt another currency as their national currency): 80%
  13. S&P 500 2016 >10% growth: 60%
  14. S&P 500 will be between 2000 and 2850: 80% (80% confidence interval)
  15. Unemployment rate December 2017 < 6% : 70%
  16. WTI Crude Oil price > $60 : 70%
  17. Price of Bitcoin > $750: 60%
  18. Price of Bitcoin < $1000: 50%
  19. Price of Bitcoin < $2000: 80%
  20. There will not be another cryptocurrency with market cap above $1B: 80%
  21. There will not be another cryptocurrency with market cap above $500M: 50%
  22. Sentient General AI will not be created this year: 99%
  23. Self-driving cars will not be available this year for general purchase: 90%
  24. Self-driving cars will not be available this year to purchase / legally operate for < $100k: 99%
  25. I will not be able to buy trips on self-driving cars from Uber/Lyft in a location I am living: 80%
  26. I will not be able to buy a trip on a self-driving car from Uber/Lyft without a backup employee in the car anywhere in the US: 90%
  27. Humans will not land on moon by end of 2017: 95%
  28. SpaceX will bring humans to low earth orbit: 50%
  29. SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket: 60%
  30. No SpaceX rockets explode without launching their payload to orbit: 60%
  31. Actual wall on Mexican border not built: 99%
  32. Some increased spending on immigration through expanding CBP, ICE, or the border fence: 80%
  33. Corporate Tax Rate will be cut to 20% or below: 50%
  34. Obamacare (at least mandate, community pricing, pre-existing conditions) not reversed: 80%
  35. Budget deficit will increase: 90%
  36. Increase in spending or action on Drug War (e.g. raiding marijuana dispensaries, increased spending on DEA, etc): 70%
  37. Some tariffs raised: 90%
  38. The US will not significantly change its relationship to NAFTA: 60%
  39. Federal government institutes some interference with state level legal marijuana: 60%
  40. At least one instance where the executive branch violates a citable civil liberties court case: 70%
  41. Trump administration does not file a lawsuit against any news organization for defamation: 60%
  42. Trump not impeached (also no Trump resignation): 95%

Sports

  1. Miami Heat do not make playoffs:  95%
  2. Miami Heat get top 6 draft pick: 60%
  3. Duke basketball wins 1 game or more against UNC: 80%
  4. Duke basketball makes it to Round of 32 in NCAA Tournament: 90%
  5. Duke basketball makes Final Four: 50%
  6. Duke basketball does not win NCAA tournament: 80%
  7. Warriors or Cavs will win the NBA title: 60%
  8. Lebron James will not be highest paid NBA player during 2017-18 season: 70%

Personal

  1. Employed in current job:  90%
  2. I will have less than 300 Twitter followers: 60%
  3. I will change my registered party from Republican to Libertarian: 70%
  4. I will have authored > 14 more blog posts (not just on this blog) by June 30, 2017: 90%
  5. I will have authored > 30 more blog posts (not just on this blog) by December 31, 2017: 80%
  6. michaelelgart.com to have >3,000 page loads 2017: 70%
  7. These predictions are under-confident: 70%

2016 Predictions

How confident should we be? People tend to be overconfident.  One way to figure out if our confidence levels are correct is to test our calibration levels by making predictions and seeing how many of them pan out. Inspired by Slate Star Codex’s predictions, here are my predictions and accompanying confidence levels. For the sake of convenience I will choose from confidence levels of 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95% or 99%. All predictions are by December 31, 2016 unless noted otherwise.

World Events

  1. Liberland will be recognized by <5 UN members: 99%
  2. Free State Project to reach goal of 20,000 people in 2016: 50%
  3. ISIS to still exist: 80%
  4. ISIS to kill < 100 Americans 2016: 80%
  5. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 80%
  6. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 80%
  7. Donald Trump will not be Republican Nominee: 80%
  8. Hillary Clinton to be Democratic nominee: 90%
  9. Republicans to hold Senate: 60%
  10. Republicans to hold House: 80%
  11. Republicans to win Presidential Election: 50%
  12. I will vote for the Libertarian Presidential Candidate: 70%
  13. S&P 500 level end of year < 2500: 70%
  14. Unemployment rate December 2016 < 6% : 70%
  15. WTI Crude Oil price < $50 : 80%
  16. Price of Bitcoin > $500:  60%
  17. Price of Bitcoin < $1000: 80%
  18. Sentient General AI will not be created this year: 99%
  19. Self-driving cars will not be available this year to purchase / legally operate for < $100k: 99%
  20. I will not be able to rent trips on self-driving cars from Uber/ Lyft: 90%
  21. Humans will not land on moon by end of 2016: 95%
  22. Edward Snowden will not be pardoned by end of Obama Administration: 80%

Personal

  1. Employed in current job:  90%
  2. I will have less than 300 Twitter followers: 60%
  3. I will have authored > 12 more blog posts by June 30, 2016:  50%
  4. michaelelgart.com to have >4,000 page loads 2016: 50%
  5. These predictions are underconfident: 70%

Sports

  1. Miami Heat make playoffs 2016:  80%
  2. Miami Heat will not make Eastern Conference Finals:  90%
  3. Duke basketball wins 1 game or more against UNC: 60%
  4. Duke basketball makes it to Round of 32 in NCAA Tournament: 70%
  5. Duke basketball does not make Final Four: 90%
  6. USA wins Olympic gold medal in basketball: 70%
  7. Kevin Durant will not be highest paid NBA player during 2016-17 season: 70%

Choosing Sides: College Football Edition

Building off of some of my reasoning in my NBA Finals post, I realized I needed a better system for deciding which teams to cheer for in college football. There are 128 college football teams in NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (known as FBS), and since each team only plays about 12 games a year, most teams do not play each other. Consequently, if you cheer for only one team, you end up only watching a small fraction of the available games, and you’ll never see most good teams play.  But since I like football and, as noted in the NBA Finals post, sports are much more fun when you have a narrative, I’ve decided to properly develop a system to dictate who I will cheer for in different games. This is especially useful with the upcoming conference championships today as well as the many bowl games later in the month.

The system is a pretty straightforward hierarchy, but since I don’t have strong enough feelings on all 128 FBS teams (or even most in the Power 5 conferences), I’ve divided the teams into 3 groups:

  • Group A is a ranked hierarchy of teams I will cheer for against all other teams, except those that are higher in Group A
  • Group Omega is a ranked hierarchy of all the teams I will always cheer against, except those that are higher in Group Omega.  You’ll notice it is larger than group A.
  • Group Meh is all the teams I don’t have strong feelings about. I will cheer against them when they play Group A, and for them when they play Group Omega. I won’t care when they play each other.

Continue reading

Credit Michael Tipton, Used and Licensed under CC-BY-SA

The NBA Should Shorten Their Season

I.

Did you know that the NBA has the best YouTube channel of any major North American sport? This is remarkable considering it is a distant third in terms of revenue.  It’s also a fascinating exercise in fan outreach, as the NBA actively encourages fan-made videos and other content while other sports use restrictive copyrights to make themselves the sole distributor of content. In addition to these policies (and the fact that I like basketball), it’s worth noting that while football is clearly the king of team sports in the US (especially if you include college football), there’s a risk that increased awareness of concussions and other injuries could cause football to lose out on revenue in the future. This could happen through changes in demand, with fewer people wanting to watch football, or changes in supply, as fewer athletes want to play. If you think it can’t happen, don’t forget that boxing used to be one of America’s most dominant sports.

Will this same fate happen to football? It’s impossible to know, but as a basketball fan, I hope the NBA is be prepared to try and take over that market space.  Before they are under the spotlight and the opportunity passes, they should implement some reforms. An important one would be the shortening of the season. Continue reading

Choosing Sides: NBA Finals Edition

For the first time in eight years, the Cleveland Cavaliers have made the NBA Finals. As a Heat fan who got to watch the greatest player, perhaps ever, in his prime bring my team to the NBA Finals four years in a row, it’s weird to see Lebron leading the Cavs.  And now I’m faced with the question of whether to root for him or not. Continue reading

Does Tom Thibodeau work his players too hard?

Last night, the Heat held the Bulls to their lowest point total ever in a postseason game (65), as well as lowest field goal percentage ever (25.7%).  And this happened while Dwyane Wade has bone bruises on his left knee. After the game Wade spoke with the media: “When you have a [bone] bruise, you try to move the kneecap over so it won’t rub When you get into game sweat you have to re-tape it a bit.” Ouch.

But speaking of injuries, the clearest cause of the Bulls’ troubles has been the plethora of health problems their team is facing. Derek Rose has been out for a year, and Luol Deng has been sidelined after a health scare relating to a spinal tap he had done.  Until recently, Joakim Noah was sidelined with plantar fasciitis.  Kirk Hinrich’s calf has been bothering him for a while now. Derek Rose has been cleared medically to play for months now, but has yet to play in a real game.

Is it possible that Bulls Coach Thibodeau worked his players too hard this year? It’s certainly a possibility.  Thibodeau’s trademark defensive strategy is one of the best in the league, and in the past 2 years prior, with a healthy Rose, the Bulls obtained the top record in the East.  It’s undisputed that the Bulls push themselves hard in every game, but could that strategy backfire?  Injuries are a function of exhaustion, age, and randomness.  The Lakers this year certainly saw the results of a combined ancient team with a lack of depth. Almost every player on the Lakers saw time on the bench due to injury, not least of all Kobe Bryant’s crushing torn ligament at the end of the season after the 35 year old had been playing minutes in the high 30s all year.

But the Bulls are not an old team, especially in comparison to the Heat, which leaves exhaustion and randomness. The injury to Derek Rose could be a source of extra minutes to other Bulls players this past year, resulting in them being more injury prone. And Tom Thibodeau has a history of pushing his players hard in the regular season. On the other hand, Luol Deng’s injury was a medical freak accident which could not have been foreseen.  And sometimes injuries just pile up and there isn’t a lot to be done.

If it is random, then it is likely we will see the Bulls be much better next year, especially if/when Derek Rose returns.  But if the Bulls continue to fall short due to injuries, there may be a deeper root of the problem.